Thursday, March 14, 2013

AL East predictions

Ok, so I've finally figured it out that this will take a lot less time if I go ahead and just blog on the last 4 divisions, so I'm going to do that starting with the AL East. This seriously is the division I hate the most out of most any sport, because ESPN fawns over them the most, and therefore I can't stand this division. However, I can put that aside, and blog on it with more then a little bit of knowledge, at least in my own mind.

New York Yankees

2012 Record: 95-67

Manager: Joe Girardi

Projected Starting Pitchers: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phillip Hughes, Ivan Nova

Projected Starting Fielders: C Francisco Cervelli, 1B Juan Rivera(Mark Texiera out 6-8 weeks), 2B Robinson Cano, SS Derek Jeter, 3B Kevin Youkilis(Could also play 1B), LF Ben Francisco, CF Brett Gardner, RF Ichiro Suzuki, DH Travis Hafner(Could potentially play 1B has done so in past).

2012 Recap: This team definitely battled last year, no questions asked, between injuries and the rest of the division, this was not an easy season for winning the division. They managed to hold off the surprising Orioles at the end, even though they made it interesting at the end, then had to turn around and face them in the division series. The ankle injury to Jeter definitely closed the door on another trip to the world series for the Yankees, but they battled eventually losing to the Tigers.

2013 Outlook: There is an 800lb gorilla in the room when you talk about this year's Yankees, the injuries already sustained to this team before opening day. If you look at it, you have a team with three major injuries, A Rod, Texeira and Granderson, with injuries until at least early May, this could effect the way they start the year. The start won't be as important as how they end, this is going to be a tough division, you have the Orioles who surprised everyone last year, the Red Sox who can't be as bad as last year, and the Blue Jays who got better, and thats without mentioning the Rays. I can see an 85 win season depending on how they deal with the absolute plague of injuries to start the year, and thats not including ones that will happen this year.

Projected 2013 wins: 88





Baltimore Orioles

2012 Record: 93-69

Manager: Buck Schowalter

Projected Starting Pitchers: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez(Best last name there is), Brian Matusz

Projected Starting Fielders: C Matt Wieters, 1B Chris Davis, 2B Ryan Flaherty, SS JJ Hardy, 3B Manny Machado, LF Nolan Reimold, CF Adam Jones(didn't know pacman played both baseball and football), RF Nick Markakis, DH Wilson Betemit

2012 Recap: This team wasn't expected to do anything this past year, and definitely surprised a lot of observers, including myself, and I was glad to see them return to glory. Manny Machado was a difference maker for sure, he brought a lot of spark to the team that helped propel them to the second wild card spot. I personally would've put Buck Schowalter on the short list of managers that I would expect to lose their jobs going into last year, not candidates for manager of the year. Granted they lost in the divisional round to the Yankees, but compared to expectations, they definitely succeeded in 2012, and I can see them having success in the future.

2013 Outlook: This team will only get better, they are a young team, and they only can go up from where they are, and that includes their pitching. This team has a surplus of pitching, as one analyst for ESPN said in the offseason, they almost have too many quality starters. So the question is again, what happens with the rest of this division? As I said, this division is good top to bottom, and as much as I hate it, this division could have 3 teams in the playoffs this year easily.

Projected 2013 Wins: 85




Tampa Bay Rays

2012 Record: 90-72

Manager: Joe Maddon

Projected Starting Pitchers: David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann

Projected Starting Fielders: C Jose Molina, 1B James Loney, 2B Bryan Roberts, SS Yunel Escobar, 3B Evan Longoria, LF Matt Joyce, CF Desmond Jennings, RF Ben Zobrist, DH Luke Scott

2012 Recap: In any other division, 90 wins would get you a playoff berth, but just by chance, they didn't make the playoffs this year, much like the 2006 White Sox. This team was consistent all year, with very few peaks and valleys, which to me means that they have what it takes to compete every year, and they do. They made one interesting move, by trading Upton to the Braves in the offseason, an offseason which was characteristically quiet for them, but they know how to draft thats for sure.

2013 Outlook: This team will definitely be in contention, but I have to hesitate on their record, because arguably, they got worse, and the rest of the division got better. By trading Upton, you lose your leadoff hitter, and with the moves that the other members of the division made to add to their talent, I can't see a huge win total from them. The fact is though that they still have solid pitching and defense, which some would say that they are the biggest keys to winning in baseball. Objectively speaking I'd like to say that they'll beat the Yankees for the division, but I can't say that with a lot of confidence goin into the year.

Projected 2013 Wins: 82




Toronto Blue Jays

2012 Record: 73-89

Manager: John Gibbons

Projected Starting Pitchers: RA Dickey, Brendan Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, Ricky Romero

Projected Starting Fielders: C JP Arencibia, 1B Edwin Encarnacion, 2B Maicer Izturis, SS Jose Reyes, 3B Brett Lawrie, LF Melky Cabrera, CF Colby Rasmus, RF Jose Bautista, DH Adam Lind

2012 Recap: This team wasn't expected to do much, and quite frankly thats what they did. While they didn't finish dead last in their division, thanks in large part to the Red Sox woes, they really didn't fare much better then the Red Sox record wise. Historically, since their two world series wins in the early 90s, they really haven't done much, and have had a long string of managers since then, even some that have been there twice.  This offseason, they went out with the intention of competing, and made some surprising moves to get to that point, even rehiring John Gibbons after trading John Farrell to the Red Sox.

2013 Outlook: This team brings a mixed bag of expectations for me, they made moves to get better, but what says that they don't do the same as prior years, and underachieve. The fact is that they have a very potent pitching staff and lineup, but that doesn't mean that they will all gel this year, much like every other team. They did benefit from the latest firesale in Miami, in getting Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buerhle and others, all players that have been quality players in their careers. This team like the other four will have to compete in the extremely tough AL East, and I cannot see them finishing above .500 this year unless something crazy happens.

2013 Projected Wins: 79





Boston Red Sox

2012 Record: 69-93

Manager: John Farrell

Projected Starting Pitchers: John Lester, Clay Buchholtz, Felix Doubront, John Lackey, Ryan Dempster

Projected Starting Fielders: C Jerrod Saltalamacchia, 1B Mike Napoli, 2B Dustin Pedroia, SS Stephen Drew, 3B Will Middlebrooks, LF Johnny Gomes, CF Jacoby Elsbury, RF Shane Victorino, DH David Ortiz

2012 Recap: To say this team underachieved would be an understatement, they fell flat on their faces, and used Bobby Valentine as a fall guy for their failures. I'm not saying that it wasn't his fault, but I believe that he was used as a fall guy when they fell apart last season, without mentioning their aged lineup underperforming. The roster was plagued up and down with injuries more then anyone else in the division, and that could be caused by their aged lineup.

2013 Outlook: While the team got better, and got rid of their manager Bobby Valentine, this team didn't get much younger, and that's going to be their biggest problem this year and going forward. Granted, no team that wants to compete can go completely young in one season, they are still an old team, and therefore, they will struggle with the issues that come with an older team. Their pitching is solid, and should be able to carry this team for the most part due to now having their old pitching coach back, but I still can't see them competing as much as fans would like them to this year.

2013 Projected wins: 75



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